IWMI at World Water Week 2020

Early warning systems (EWS) facilitate societies’ preparedness and effective response capabilities to climate risks. Climate risks embody hazards, exposure, and vulnerability associated with a particular geographical area. Building an effective EWS requires consideration of the factors above to help people with coping mechanisms. The objective of this paper is to propose an approach that can enhance EWSs and ensure an effective climate risk resilience development. The paper focuses on the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region and highlights the issues with EWS, identifying weaknesses and characteristics of EWS to help in climate risk adaptation strategies. The SADC region was chosen as the context because it is a climate variability and change hotspot with many vulnerable populations residing in rural communities. Trending themes on building climate risk resilience were uncovered through scientific mapping and network analysis of published articles from 2008 to 2022. This paper contributes to on-going research on building climate risks resilience through early warning systems to identify hidden trends and emerging technologies from articles in order to enhance the operationalization and design of EWS. This review provides insight into technological interventions for assessing climate risks to build preparedness and resilience. From the review analysis, it is determined that there exists a plethora of evidence to support the argument that involving communities in the co-designing of EWS would improve risk knowledge, anticipation, and preparedness. Additionally, Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) technologies provide effective tools to address existing EWS’ weaknesses, such as lack of real-time data collection and automation. However, 4IR technology is still at a nascent stage in EWS applications in Africa. Furthermore, policy across societies, institutions, and technology industries ought to be coordinated and integrated to develop a strategy toward implementing climate resilient-based EWS to facilitate the operations of disaster risk managers. The Social, Institutional, and Technology model can potentially increase communities’ resilience; therefore, it is recommended to develop EWS.

Hydro-climatic extremes, such as floods and droughts, are influenced by climate change and climate variability, significantly affecting natural ecosystems, human lives, and livelihood. It is crucial to advance the understanding of long-term trends of hydro-climatic extremes for effective water resource planning and management. We analyzed 25 climatic extremes-related indices and 33 hydrologic extremes-related indices in a medium-range river basin in western Nepal, the Babai River Basin. We used RClimDex and Indicators for Hydrologic Alterations to analyze extreme climatic and hydrologic parameters. We computed monotonic trends to evaluate temporal changes in extreme events. The results show a positive trend of total precipitation at Kusum (+ 2.2 mm/year) and Bargadaha (+ 17.7 mm/year) stations and a negative trend at Gulariya (- 5.7 mm/year), Nayabasti (- 7.0 mm/year), Luwamjula (- 5.9 mm/year), and Ghorai (- 18.5 mm/year) stations. Similarly, we observe that almost all temperature extreme indices have a rising trend except the percentage of the days when the maximum temperature is less than the 10th percentile index at Rani Jaruwa station, located at a low elevation. Notably, the cold day temperature index falls at 0.13 days per year. Overall, the hydrologic alteration value shows moderate variability and reduction in the median flow for the second half. The findings of this study indicate that the study area is subjected to a reduced flow regime with a medium degree of variability.

Antibiotics have revolutionised medicine in the last century and enabled the prevention of bacterial infections that were previously deemed untreatable. However, in parallel, bacteria have increasingly developed resistance to antibiotics through various mechanisms. When resistant bacteria find their way into terrestrial and aquatic environments, animal and human exposures increase, e.g., via polluted soil, food, and water, and health risks multiply. Understanding the fate and transport of antibiotic resistant bacteria (ARB) and the transfer mechanisms of antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) in aquatic environments is critical for evaluating and mitigating the risks of resistant-induced infections. The conceptual understanding of sources and pathways of antibiotics, ARB, and ARGs from society to the water environments is essential for setting the scene and developing an appropriate framework for modelling. Various factors and processes associated with hydrology, ecology, and climate change can significantly affect the fate and transport of ARB and ARGs in natural environments. This article reviews current knowledge, research gaps, and priorities for developing water quality models to assess the fate and transport of ARB and ARGs. The paper also provides inputs on future research needs, especially the need for new predictive models to guide risk assessment on AR transmission and spread in aquatic environments.

Quantifying water-saving potential (WSP) is crucial for sustainable water resource management in canal command areas and river basins. Previous studies have partially or fully ignored the importance of groundwater in WSP assessments, particularly in irrigated areas. This study is aimed at quantifying WSP in the Lower Chenab Canal (LCC) command area of the Indus River Basin, Pakistan, under various scenarios of future climate change and groundwater recharge. These quantifications are conducted using an empirical model based on the Budyko theory. The model was forced using observed, remote sensing, and CMIP6 future climate data for two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP245 and SSP585) and their ensembles (cold-dry, cold-wet, warm-dry, and warm-wet) for possible futures. The results showed that the average WSP in the LCC command area was 466 48 mm/year during the historical period (2001–2020). The WSP is projected to decrease by – 68 3% under the warm-dry ensemble scenario (SSP245 and SSP585) and – 48 13% under the ensembled cold-wet scenario by 2100. The results also demonstrated that WSP could be increased by up to 70 9% by artificially recharging 20% of the abstracted groundwater per year in the LCC command area by the late twenty-first century. Our findings highlight the importance of adopting artificial groundwater recharge to enhance the WSP and sustainably manage water resources in the LCC command area. Policymakers should consider these findings when deciding on water resource management in the Indus River Basin.

The most populated (urban) area in Sri Lanka is its Western Province with Colombo, Sri Lanka’s commercial capital. This “Megapolis” depends for its food supply significantly on different geographical areas of Sri Lanka. These foodsheds differ by commodity. Peri-urban agriculture plays a minor role and until very recently, urban farming did not get (institutional) attention, although the role of both, urban and peri-urban agriculture is mentioned in the national agricultural policy. The policy also calls for the identification and strengthening of city region food system (CRFS) to better link rural and urban communities, also in view of climate shocks and other disasters. The need for this became clear during the Covid-19 epidemic and subsequent economic crisis of the country when the Colombo Municipal Council started actively to support urban food production.

Over the last thirty years, Ghana’s population in towns and cities has more than tripled, from 4 million to nearly 14 million, exceeding growth in the rural areas. In fact, rural-urban migration is an important factor for urban growth. It is estimated that the urban population will reach over 70% by 2050, calling for fast and sustainable strategies for facilitating the main challenges deriving from rapid urbanization including urban food security and food system resilience against shocks. Several projects mapped urban foodsheds and the overall extent of specific city-region food systems. But not only food quantity, also food safety is at stake. A particular challenge for the farmers is widespread water pollution in urban area resulting in the contamination of irrigated vegetables. The largely informal nature of irrigated urban vegetable farming as well as the street food sector makes it difficult to regulate, promote or control compliance with food safety measures which are needed from farm to fork.

Transitioning towards a circular economy requires investments in new businesses and for this, a supportive environment and business models that can attract private entities are needed. Operating in countries where the enabling factors are minimal or weak proves extremely challenging for private enterprises. The present cross-country study tried to assess the investment climate for promoting a circular bioeconomy, i.e., businesses or public-private partnerships based on organic (municipal) waste. The main indicators used for the assessment are existing regulatory frameworks; business climate and associated procedures; governance in provision of infrastructure; incentives; access to finance; and entrepreneurial ecosystems. While most of the countries analyzed indicated evidence of regulations on waste management and policies related to promoting circularity, the divide is mainly on aspects related to business environments, access to finance and governance. The World Bank’s Ease of Doing Business index and Global Competitiveness Index (GCI) indicate that Southeast Asian and Latin American countries are better positioned than most other Asian and African countries. National economies are challenged by these barriers that need to be addressed to foster the widespread adoption of a more circular bioeconomy.

This study aimed to create a foundational hydrological model for the transboundary Limpopo River Basin (LRB) in Southern Africa using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool Plus (SWAT+) model. The model is a crucial part of a larger project to develop a digital twin of the river basin. The SWAT+ model simulated streamflow and other important hydrological processes in the LRB, using various data sources such as global gridded rainfall and other weather parameters, soils, landcover datasets, and in-situ discharge measurements from seven locations in South Africa for calibration and validation. The automatic calibration routine IPEAT+, freely available as part of the SWAT+ framework, was used for model calibration. The model was run for 23 years, from 2001 to 2023, with the calibration and validation periods varying for each gauge location. The calibration of the LRB SWAT+ model primarily consists of the discharge data from South Africa with Botswana, Zimbabwe, and Mozambique still awaited from the stakeholders. The results showed that the foundational LRB SWAT+ model achieved a good performance in simulating streamflow in the South Africa part of the LRB, with Nash Sutcliffe efficiency values ranging from 0.42 to 0.69. Further calibration in other sub-basins and the incorporation of additional reservoir data are expected to improve the overall performance of the LRB SWAT+ model. The partially calibrated and validated foundational SWAT+ model for the LRB (mainly in the South Africa part of LRB) will be the initial core of a river basin digital twin that is under development. It will integrate seasonal rainfall forecasts to simulate seasonal water availability. The fully calibrated foundational SWAT+ LRB model is expected to be available by the end of this year. It will serve as the basis for several planned applications as part of the LRB DT. The first application will focus on deriving flow patterns in the LRB catchment under unaltered natural conditions. The next application will concentrate on integrating ECMWF seasonal rainfall forecasts to predict water availability at 310 sub-basins and key channel reaches critical for environmental flows in the LRB. An updated version of the SWAT+ LRB foundational model is currently in progress. It aims to enhance the representation of reservoirs and their operations within the SWAT+ model and provide additional calibration sites within different sub-basins. This model will act as a baseline to create multiple planned applications co-developed with stakeholders.

Gender and social dimensions of access to and use of water resources are often overlooked in policy and programming despite their importance in shaping water security. This study examines factors affecting water security in urban Pakistan through a gender lens. We surveyed 560 men and women in two towns in Islamabad and Rawalpindi facing water and sanitation challenges. Through a binary logit model and marginal effects analysis, we analyzed the relationship between water security and multiple variables, including gender, education, age, employment status, payment for water, urban wealth quintile, drinking water source, individual water concern level, water satisfaction, and water quality perception. While more than 50 percent of both genders experience water insecurity, the prevalence of water insecurity is notably higher among women. Men in the surveyed population had higher levels of employment, wealth, and education levels compared to women. The regression analysis across both genders reveals that paying for drinking water negatively and significantly impacts water security, while concern about future water issues, satisfaction with drinking water, and water quality significantly and positively impact water security levels. For women specifically, access to improved drinking water sources, higher education levels, and employment significantly improve their water security level, underscoring the importance of promoting women’s education and economic empowerment. For men, age and wealth levels emerged as significant factors impacting their water security, with older men more vulnerable to water insecurity than younger men and women. These findings underscore the complex interplay of individual, social, and structural dynamics shaping water security experiences, emphasizing the need for gender-responsive and intersectional approaches to water interventions in urban Pakistan and beyond. Equitable water policies and programs necessitate the collection of more disaggregated data. This study marks the first application of the Individual Water Insecurity Experiences (IWISE) Scale used in Pakistan’s urban context, with recommendations for its broader implementation to improve decision-making that can lead to sustainable water solutions across diverse gender and social groups.