IWMI at World Water Week 2020

Early warning systems (EWS) facilitate societies’ preparedness and effective response capabilities to climate risks. Climate risks embody hazards, exposure, and vulnerability associated with a particular geographical area. Building an effective EWS requires consideration of the factors above to help people with coping mechanisms. The objective of this paper is to propose an approach that can enhance EWSs and ensure an effective climate risk resilience development. The paper focuses on the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region and highlights the issues with EWS, identifying weaknesses and characteristics of EWS to help in climate risk adaptation strategies. The SADC region was chosen as the context because it is a climate variability and change hotspot with many vulnerable populations residing in rural communities. Trending themes on building climate risk resilience were uncovered through scientific mapping and network analysis of published articles from 2008 to 2022. This paper contributes to on-going research on building climate risks resilience through early warning systems to identify hidden trends and emerging technologies from articles in order to enhance the operationalization and design of EWS. This review provides insight into technological interventions for assessing climate risks to build preparedness and resilience. From the review analysis, it is determined that there exists a plethora of evidence to support the argument that involving communities in the co-designing of EWS would improve risk knowledge, anticipation, and preparedness. Additionally, Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) technologies provide effective tools to address existing EWS’ weaknesses, such as lack of real-time data collection and automation. However, 4IR technology is still at a nascent stage in EWS applications in Africa. Furthermore, policy across societies, institutions, and technology industries ought to be coordinated and integrated to develop a strategy toward implementing climate resilient-based EWS to facilitate the operations of disaster risk managers. The Social, Institutional, and Technology model can potentially increase communities’ resilience; therefore, it is recommended to develop EWS.

Hydro-climatic extremes, such as floods and droughts, are influenced by climate change and climate variability, significantly affecting natural ecosystems, human lives, and livelihood. It is crucial to advance the understanding of long-term trends of hydro-climatic extremes for effective water resource planning and management. We analyzed 25 climatic extremes-related indices and 33 hydrologic extremes-related indices in a medium-range river basin in western Nepal, the Babai River Basin. We used RClimDex and Indicators for Hydrologic Alterations to analyze extreme climatic and hydrologic parameters. We computed monotonic trends to evaluate temporal changes in extreme events. The results show a positive trend of total precipitation at Kusum (+ 2.2 mm/year) and Bargadaha (+ 17.7 mm/year) stations and a negative trend at Gulariya (- 5.7 mm/year), Nayabasti (- 7.0 mm/year), Luwamjula (- 5.9 mm/year), and Ghorai (- 18.5 mm/year) stations. Similarly, we observe that almost all temperature extreme indices have a rising trend except the percentage of the days when the maximum temperature is less than the 10th percentile index at Rani Jaruwa station, located at a low elevation. Notably, the cold day temperature index falls at 0.13 days per year. Overall, the hydrologic alteration value shows moderate variability and reduction in the median flow for the second half. The findings of this study indicate that the study area is subjected to a reduced flow regime with a medium degree of variability.

Antibiotics have revolutionised medicine in the last century and enabled the prevention of bacterial infections that were previously deemed untreatable. However, in parallel, bacteria have increasingly developed resistance to antibiotics through various mechanisms. When resistant bacteria find their way into terrestrial and aquatic environments, animal and human exposures increase, e.g., via polluted soil, food, and water, and health risks multiply. Understanding the fate and transport of antibiotic resistant bacteria (ARB) and the transfer mechanisms of antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) in aquatic environments is critical for evaluating and mitigating the risks of resistant-induced infections. The conceptual understanding of sources and pathways of antibiotics, ARB, and ARGs from society to the water environments is essential for setting the scene and developing an appropriate framework for modelling. Various factors and processes associated with hydrology, ecology, and climate change can significantly affect the fate and transport of ARB and ARGs in natural environments. This article reviews current knowledge, research gaps, and priorities for developing water quality models to assess the fate and transport of ARB and ARGs. The paper also provides inputs on future research needs, especially the need for new predictive models to guide risk assessment on AR transmission and spread in aquatic environments.

Quantifying water-saving potential (WSP) is crucial for sustainable water resource management in canal command areas and river basins. Previous studies have partially or fully ignored the importance of groundwater in WSP assessments, particularly in irrigated areas. This study is aimed at quantifying WSP in the Lower Chenab Canal (LCC) command area of the Indus River Basin, Pakistan, under various scenarios of future climate change and groundwater recharge. These quantifications are conducted using an empirical model based on the Budyko theory. The model was forced using observed, remote sensing, and CMIP6 future climate data for two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP245 and SSP585) and their ensembles (cold-dry, cold-wet, warm-dry, and warm-wet) for possible futures. The results showed that the average WSP in the LCC command area was 466 48 mm/year during the historical period (2001–2020). The WSP is projected to decrease by – 68 3% under the warm-dry ensemble scenario (SSP245 and SSP585) and – 48 13% under the ensembled cold-wet scenario by 2100. The results also demonstrated that WSP could be increased by up to 70 9% by artificially recharging 20% of the abstracted groundwater per year in the LCC command area by the late twenty-first century. Our findings highlight the importance of adopting artificial groundwater recharge to enhance the WSP and sustainably manage water resources in the LCC command area. Policymakers should consider these findings when deciding on water resource management in the Indus River Basin.

Groundwater is the single largest source of water for irrigation and domestic use in India. Climate change further exacerbates the threat of depletion, reducing food security and increasing the vulnerabilities of resource users. Governance is complicated by externalities associated with its attributes as an invisible and fluid resource which create problems of rivalry and exclusion. Based on theory-based case studies for evaluation of selected World Bank projects, we analyse challenges for groundwater governance and identify factors that contribute to depletion. It highlights the need for integrating and balancing demand and supply-side approaches, including water-efficient irrigation and climate-smart practices.

There is growing evidence that climate-related risk is increasing, and this will affect the livelihoods of small-scale producers (SSPs), with the effects being more severe in agropastoral and pastoral farming systems. In the Awash River Basin, the vulnerability of SSPs is mounting because of anthropogenic and climatic factors. Investigating the impact of landscape management practices and the interaction of SSPs with natural resources would inform sustainable planning, implementing and managing interventions.; This study was conducted in four watersheds in the Awash River Basin: Maybar-Felana, Gelana, Ewa and Afambo. The overarching objective was to assess the biophysical and socioeconomic impacts and gender dimensions of landscape management practices. The researchers also investigated the links between natural resource degradation and the vulnerability of natural resource-dependent people, and the contributions of landscape management practices to address these issues.; The study analyzed data gathered through 500 household surveys, 51 key informant interviews, 96 in-depth household interviews, 36 focus group discussions, and Geographic Information System (GIS) and remote sensing techniques. The results indicated that diverse household-, farm- and watershed-level landscape management practices were adopted in the four watersheds. The findings indicated that implementing these practices could improve natural resources and the services they provide. The adopted practices contributed to reducing livelihood vulnerability by minimizing the effects of weather extremes (floods and droughts), improving food and water security, enhancing resource availability and building livelihood assets. Practicing small-scale irrigation (SSI) has a positive and significant effect on the household Food Consumption Score (FCS) and the Household Dietary Diversity Score (HDDS). Stone bunds and SSI have a significant impact on lowering the score on the Household Food Insecurity Access Scale (HFIAS).; The findings suggest that women and other marginalized groups (children, the elderly and resource-poor households) are the most affected by climate change and natural resource degradation. Government and non-government organizations recognize the needs of women and marginalized social groups in designing and implementing landscape management initiatives by prioritizing their participation in initiatives to empower them economically (e.g., involving them in income-generating activities) and socially (e.g., building social capital).; Despite efforts to achieve gender equality and women’s empowerment in landscape management initiatives, women and marginalized social groups remain vulnerable and benefit less due to various factors, including social norms and limited institutional capacities. Gender norms, values and practices embedded within individuals, households, communities and institutions hinder progress. Limited institutional capacities, such as financial and human capaci

Global warming is projected to result in changes in streamflow in West Africa with implications for frequent droughts and floods. This study investigates projected shifting in the timing, seasonality and magnitude of mean annual minimum (MAM) and annual maximum flows (AMF) in the Volta River basin (VRB) under climate change, using the method of circular statistics. River flow is simulated with the mesoscale hydrologic model (mHM), forced with bias-corrected climate projection datasets consisting of 43 regional and global climate model combinations under three representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Projected changes indicate that AMF increases between + 1 % and +80 % across sub-basins, particularly in the near future (2021–2050), whereas MAM decreases between -19 % and -7 %, mainly from the late century (2071–2100), depending on RCPs. The date of occurrence of AMF is projected to change between -4 and +3 d, while MAM could shift between -4 and +14 d depending on scenarios over the 21st century. Annual high flows denote a strong seasonality with negligible future changes, whereas the seasonality of low flows has a higher variation, with a slight drop in the future.

The concept of integrated water resource management requires an in-depth analysis of water inflows into a river basin. Population growth and the uncertainties associated with climate change are causing increased water stress and droughts, which are impacting agriculture. Hence the need for studies on the impact of climate change on demand-supply interactions in river basins. In this study, a generic decision support system, ModSim, was used; for the first time in the region; to examine the agricultural water usage and demands over Souss basin in Morocco. ModSim was calibrated over the period from 1990 to 2019 using recorded data about physical processes and hydraulic infrastructures features and management. The simulations succeeded in replicating different deficit episodes at the various irrigated perimeters. During the simulated period from 2012 to 2019, it was observed that the water supplies for the different dams in the basin experienced a decline ranging from 38% to 89%. As a result, the average total unmet demand for surface water from reservoirs in irrigated areas reached 201 mm3 between 1990 and 2019 and the monthly average demand increases by 55% in the dry season, compared to the demands in the rest of the year. The significant amount of unmet demand across all sites suggests that demands are satisfied by the withdrawal of water from groundwater resources. The adopted approach has proven to be a useful decision support tool to understand water resources planning challenges. Water managers require such reliable tools to represent the basinapos;s water trade-offs. Thus, additional investigation to improve the representation of groundwater/surface water interaction approaches is required to enhance the evaluation of the consequences of different uses, especially in arid and semi-arid regions with significant water stress such as Souss. A conceptual framework as well as a detailed discussion have been produced in order to guide efficient water management and governance.

Agroecological approaches are increasingly promoted for food systems transformation by applying ecological principles, regeneratively using natural resources and ecosystem services, and addressing the need for socially equitable food systems. Yet, despite widespread support from social movements, agroecological transition (AET) is still constrained by a lack of holistic performance metrics, top-down incentives and investments, and limited capacity to engage with private-public finance models, businesses, and policy processes. Large-scale AET requires empowering diverse actors and organizations to exercise their choices and roles to develop individual and institutional capability pipelines to create and harness opportunities for new businesses to capture more value from agriculture and food systems.

Sound water management decisions are required to address the effects of climate change on water and, through this, enhance resilience to its impacts. Timely, context-specific and reliable climate and water data and information are prerequisites for sound water management decisions that aim to enhance the climate resilience of small-scale agricultural producers. Climate change impacts water by exacerbating scarcity, increasing the frequency and intensity of extremes – droughts and floods – and increasing the interannual variability of rainfall, on which the livelihoods of most rural households in Ethiopia depend. While the climate and water monitoring networks and database systems constitute the basic data infrastructure, institutional practices are equally important, if not more important, to ensure water and climate data are collected, processed and used to support water management decisions at multiple institutional levels.; A review of current institutional practices in the collection, organization, dissemination and use in decision-making of climate and water data was conducted as part of the project, through which several gaps were identified that need to be addressed to improve the climate resilience of small-scale agricultural producers. They include fragmentation of data, lack of adequate human and institutional capacity, frequent restructuring or reform of institutions, the absence of a well-coordinated knowledge management system and the absence of clear boundaries or linkage mechanisms between federal-level institutions and those operating within the basin or sub-basin levels.; Three options are proposed in this report that are aimed at strengthening institutional mechanisms for improved collection, organization, sharing and dissemination of climate and water data and decision support tools. Option 1 focuses on substantially strengthening existing data collection, organization and dissemination infrastructure, coupled with fit-for-purpose coordination arrangements among the key government agencies through task forces and working groups. Option 2 focuses on substantially strengthening the multi-level organization structure and scope of the institutional arrangement for the National Framework for Climate Services of Ethiopia (NFCS-E). The scope of climate services needs to be expanded to include water information services, which are underserved in the current structure. The central proposal under Option 3 is to have a dedicated multi-ministerial institution on climate and water data and analytics.; The options can be considered as stand-alone alternatives. They can also be understood to be stages in a phased transformation of the institutional settings for climate and water data and decision support services. Option 1, being the least disruptive, can be considered the first or starting point. A successful implementation of Option 1 would mean robust climate and water data monitoring networks combined with a strong information and communi