Findings from the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Cycle (AR6) Working Group 1 Report
20 August 2021
16:30 – 18:00 IST / 13:00 – 14:30 CEST
Countries across the Global South have long been impacted by human-induced climate change, despite contributing very little to global carbon emissions. Now, events trigged by climate crisis are prevalent across the Global North, from flooding to wildfires. Globally, cities like Chennai and Cape Town have experienced days with no water supply due to long droughts, while farmers across the world are trying to adjust their farming practices amid uncertain rainfall patterns. Coastal cities are increasingly seeing disasters from cyclones and storm surges. Floods, droughts and other extreme events like heat waves and cyclones are the main ways in which people across the world are feeling the impacts of climate change. Many of these impacts are water related. Is climate change intensifying the global water cycle? Is climate change making extreme events more likely and more intense?
These are some of the questions that authors from Working Group I of the IPCC will discuss in a webinar on 20th August, 2021 organised by IWMI. The IPCC is releasing its Working Group I report in early August 2021. Two lead authors of IPCC will speak at the IWMI-organised webinar, and present their findings from the latest round of IPCC Assessment. These are Friederike Otto, Associate Director of the Environmental Change Unit, University of Oxford, and Dr Krishnan Raghavan, who specializes in climate modelling. They will be joined by panellists including Neeta Pokrel, Dr Mark Smith, Dr Debra Roberts, Prof. Saleemul Huq, and Cate Lamb, who will discuss the implications of the latest climate change findings for regions like Asia and Africa where CGIAR works. The event will be facilitated by Dr Aditi Mukherji.
The IPCC is the UN body for assessing the science related to climate change and publishes reports at intervals of seven years. The Sixth Assessment Cycle consists of three IPCC Working Groups Reports, three Special Reports and a Synthesis Report. The contributions from the three Working Groups will be released between 2021 and 2022, starting with the release of WGI Report in early August, 2021.
Speakers
Freddi Otto (Fredi), is Associate Director of the Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, and an Associate Professor in the Global Climate Science Programme.
Her main research interest is on extreme weather events such as droughts, heat waves and storms, and understanding whether and to what extent these are made more likely or intense due to climate change. She leads several projects understanding the impacts of man-made climate change on natural and social systems with a particular focus on Africa and India.
Fredi is the co-lead of World Weather Attribution (WWA), an international effort to analyse and communicate the possible influence of climate change on extreme weather events, hosted at the Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford. Through rapid attribution studies, which provide timely scientific evidence showing the extent to which climate change influenced a given event, WWA has helped to change the global conversation around climate change, influencing adaptation strategies and paving the way for new sustainability litigation.
Dr. Krishnan Raghavan heads the Centre for Climate Change Research (CCCR) at Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune. He specializes in climate modeling and analysis to address key scientific issues pertaining to “Global Climate Change and Variability, Climate Dynamics (Global and Regional), Dynamics and Variability of the Indian and Asian Monsoon, Global and Monsoon Hydrological Cycle”. He is proactively involved in developing in-house capability in Earth System Modeling to address the science of climate change. Krishnan carried out Ph.D. research at the Physical Research Laboratory, Ahmedabad, in Atmospheric Sciences. He was awarded Ph.D. degree from the University of Pune in 1994.
Yasmin Siddiqi is a chartered civil engineer (UK) and has a post graduate degree in irrigation engineering (UK). She has over 25 years of experience in natural resources management, including integrated water resources management, irrigation, knowledge solutions and leading teams at Asian Development Bank (ADB). She is currently the operational director for agriculture and natural resources in the Central and West Asia Department of ADB.
Dr. Debra Roberts is head of the Sustainable and Resilient City Initiatives Unit in eThekwini Municipality (Durban, South Africa). She was a lead author of Chapter 8 (Urban Areas) and a contributing author to Chapter 12 (Africa) of Working Group II’s contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). She was elected as Co-Chair of Working Group II for the IPCC’s sixth assessment cycle in 2015. Dr. Roberts is an Honorary Professor at the University of KwaZulu-Natal in the School of Life Sciences and has been an advisor to the Global Commission on Adaptation, United Cities and Local Governments (UCLG) and the United Nations Secretary General’s 2019 Climate Summit. In 2019 she was included in a list of the World’s 100 Most Influential People in Climate Policy.
Cate Lamb has over 20 years of experience in all aspects of sustainable development, corporate engagement, and team leadership. As Global Director of CDP’s Water Security Initiative, she is responsible for ensuring that the program remains the gold standard for disclosure of corporate and city water-related information globally and moves rapidly to deliver significant changes in corporate and city behaviour towards water. Cate leads a talented team to ensure that the economy values water so that all important economic actors take meaningful action to conserve this precious resource.
As the Water Security thought leader for the organisation, Cate is responsible for producing research aimed at senior decision makers within both the public and private sector. She is a regular public speaker and has represented CDP on both national and international stages. In addition, she is the UNFCCC High Level Climate Champion Lead for Water, Co-Chair of the Science-Based Targets Network, a member of the Advisory Committee to Stockholm World Water Week, and an advisor to UNGC’s SDG Leadership network.
Dr. Mark Smith is the Director General of the International Water Management Institute (IWMI), based in Colombo, Sri Lanka. He has a Ph.D. in Ecology & Resource Management from Edinburgh University, UK and over 25 years of research and programme management experience in water resources, agriculture, climate and sustainability. Mark is a scientist with areas of specialization in agriculture, forestry and hydrology and a focus on how to make systems change for sustainable development more effective, practical and scalable. Prior to joining IWMI in April 2018, Mark spent 10 years as Director of the Global Water Program at the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN).
Prof. Saleemul Huq is the Director of the International Centre for Climate Change and Development (ICCCAD) and Professor at the Independent University Bangladesh (IUB) as well as Associate of the International Institute on Environment and Development (IIED) in the United Kingdom as well as the Chair of the Expert Advisory Group for the Climate Vulnerable Forum (CVF) and also Senior Adviser on Locally Led Adaptation with Global Centre on Adaptation (GCA) headquartered in the Netherlands.
He is an expert in adaptation to climate change in the most Vulnerable developing countries and has been a lead author of the third , fourth and fifth assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and he als advises the Least Developed Countries (LDC) group in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
He has published hundreds of scientific as well as popular articles and was recognised as one of the top twenty global influencers on climate change policy in 2019 and top scientist from Bangladesh on climate change science.
Dr Aditi Mukherji is a Principal Researcher at the International Water Management Institute. Before this, she led the Water and Air Theme at the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) in Nepal. She has over 20 years of experience working on policies and institutions of water resources management with a special focus on water-energy-food nexus and water and climate change adaptation. She is currently a part of the 6th Assessment Report (AR6) team of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and is the Coordinating Lead Author (CLA) of the Water Chapter, and a part of the Core Writing Team of the AR6 Synthesis Report. Aditi is a human geographer by training and has a PhD from Cambridge University, United Kingdom.
Covid-19 has caused a rupture in migration logistics and exposed inequities in the migration system, yet drivers of movement remain. Government lockdowns and closed borders due to the pandemic curtailed movement for migrants, posing complex problems for migrant hosting and origin countries. There have been significant economic shocks, with a sharp decline in unemployment for migrants and an inability to send money home through remittances to support family. Some migrants face social stigma for returning home without an income, particularly if families relied on loans to support their journeys. Consequences have been severe for informal migrants who lack government protection in their host countries. Migrants, particularly those living in crowded, lower-income neighborhoods, have been experiencing stigmatization related to the spread of Covid-19. We look at the impacts of Covid-19 on migration governance and rural areas across seven countries,development planning in Ghana, migration challenges in Southeast Asia, and community-based disaster management and resilience building in South Africa.
This focus area contributes to the following One CGIAR impact areas:
Enhancing capacity for system transformation
Food, land and water systems are complex networks of actors, institutions and activities related to the production, value addition and consumption of food. These systems are connected to and influenced by the structures and supporting mechanisms that underlie them. System transformation cannot occur without changing these underlying structures and supporting mechanisms. However, the capacity for actors to take up specific roles and responsibilities in scaling processes is sometimes lacking. Stimulating system transformation therefore requires enhancing actors’ capacity to assume their roles and responsibilities in the system to ensure that scaling processes provide equitable opportunities and contribute to sustainable development.
As a research institution, IWMI stimulates system transformation by building capacity within institutions and facilitating dialogue and collaboration between various stakeholders across sectors and their respective networks. IWMI does this by developing evidence-based capacity-strengthening programs and strategies. These include demand-driven internships with private sector entities and innovation hackathons.
This focus area contributes to the following One CGIAR impact areas:
Strengthening and sustaining the enabling environment
Making agricultural innovations and water solutions available to farmers on a massive scale is crucial if the world is to meet growing food demands and mitigate climate change impacts. However, innovation scaling efforts often do not have the desired impact because they do not sufficiently consider the factors enabling and inhibiting farmers’ adoption of these innovations. In some instances, they may even produce undesirable impacts, including environmental degradation, loss of access to resources and social inequality. IWMI develops tools and other evidence-based resources to help partners and stakeholders understand and sustain the enabling environment and introduce measures to ensure scaling success. In addition, IWMI co-designs innovative, inclusive financial modalities to accelerate investment in innovations by farmers and agri-businesses.
A key part of this focus area is the Accelerator Program, for which 12 small and medium-sized agribusinesses were selected to scale five innovation bundles that support climate information services and climate-smart agriculture.
This focus area contributes to the following One CGIAR impact areas:
Enabling gender and youth inclusion
Agriculture is the bedrock of food and nutrition security and a major source of income and employment in many developing countries. Inclusive agriculture, provides opportunities for women and youth who have historically been excluded from agriculture-led economic growth. Enhancing gender and youth inclusion in high-value agricultural value chains has the potential to increase the production of nutrient-rich, profitable crops and create attractive job opportunities for currently disadvantaged groups. Inclusive agriculture includes ensuring that women, youth and other vulnerable groups gain equitable access to water resources and technologies to support agronomic growth.
IWMI conducts comprehensive analyses of the policy framework and interventions in value chains in key geographies to clarify the barriers to gender and youth inclusion. Inclusion segmentation is also carried out to understand the investment needs and abilities of women and youth regarding innovation. IWMI then makes recommendations and develops evidence-based strategies to enable public and private sector actors to achieve sustainable and inclusive scaling of water solutions and agricultural innovation bundles. Among these strategies are internships with private sector companies for young professionals and entrepreneurs. These create win-win situations in which companies benefit from interns’ specific knowledge or skills while interns gain valuable private sector work experience and mentorship.
This focus area contributes to the following One CGIAR impact areas:
Brokering knowledge for sustainability
As a research-for-development organization, IWMI is both a producer and broker of knowledge. IWMI generates evidence to support investment in innovations that sustainably increase agricultural productivity and economic returns, support human well-being, water security and safeguard ecosystems in a changing climate. Through forums and events, often co-convened with partners, IWMI brokers knowledge exchange to catalyze change in water and food systems and accelerate innovation scaling. These forums and events include multi-stakeholder dialogues, demand-supply linkage workshops and knowledge exchange conferences.
This focus area contributes to the following One CGIAR impact areas:
Cultivating scaling preparedness
Scaling preparedness is a set of actions undertaken throughout the scaling process to maximize the adoption of innovation bundles, accelerate scaling and increase the likelihood of achieving transformational change. In cultivating scaling preparedness, stakeholder engagement is key to gain stakeholders’ buy-in, commitment, resource contribution and investment as well as adaptability. By cultivating scaling preparedness, IWMI is better able to identify and develop high-potential innovation bundles with the greatest chance of being successfully scaled.
This focus area contributes to the following One CGIAR impact areas:
Fostering scaling partnerships
Private sector actors play a central role in the dissemination and adoption of technologies and services such as information, financing, and pre- and after-sales support. IWMI has established scaling partnerships with private sector companies across Africa and Asia. Besides technical assistance, IWMI provides its partner companies with research evidence and advice, risk and suitability assessments and capacity strengthening for effective climate change-related planning and management.
Armed with these tools and resources, companies are better equipped to identify and reach their target customers in ways that are equitable, economically viable and environmentally sustainable. At the same time, farmers benefit from better access to innovations vital for improving livelihoods and climate adaptation.
This focus area contributes to the following One CGIAR impact areas:
Co-developing innovation bundles
Although agricultural water is still mainly funded by the public sector, private sector organizations and farmers are increasingly investing in innovative water management and irrigation technologies. At the same time, simply increasing the amount of finance flowing to the agricultural water sector is not enough to guarantee the uptake of innovative solutions. Investments must also be responsible, targeted and bundled with improved inputs and services, market information and access, and digital payment methods.
Consequently, IWMI partners with farmers and public and private sector actors to co-develop contextually relevant socio-technical-institutional-financial and process innovation bundles that are contextually relevant. IWMI integrates the scaling of innovation bundles into agricultural and food value chains, for instance by strengthening market linkages, to enhance the impacts on farmers’ investments, incomes and livelihoods.
This focus area contributes to the following One CGIAR impact areas:
Gender, intersectionality and social inclusion
It is critical to center gender and intersectional identities when unpacking migration phenomena. Gender as a social construct guides social norms and relations, including the decision-making processes and mechanisms leading to migration. We recognize that the intersections between race, age, class, sex, caste and region shape the migrant experience.
IWMI strives to offer transformative approaches and solutions for women, youth and marginalized groups, regarding them as equal partners in our work rather than passive end-users. For example, within communities that experience male out migration, socio-political systems are restructured to make women, youth and other groups active agents in their own agri-food transformation. Migration patterns contribute to the feminization of agriculture, and women may experience a greater burden of responsibility coupled with an increased ability to access and control resources and policies to build sustainable livelihoods. Acknowledging social complexities helps researchers and communities understand migration trends and address structural power imbalances to build a more equitable world.
This focus area contributes to the following One CGIAR impact areas:
Water, climate change and agrarian stress
Migration, water and climate stress are inextricably linked to rural development. Water stress and climate variability can act as a driver of fragility, intensifying pre-existing political, social, economic and environmental challenges. Initiatives designed to address migration-related challenges must tackle inequalities and the exclusion of women, youth and marginalized groups; governance opportunities to better manage water and natural resources and technology and innovations to help communities escape socio-ecological precarity and thrive despite climate challenges. IWMI intends to build climate resilience by implementing projects which tackle gender-power inequalities in the face of dynamic, economic-social-ecological challenges. Our work brings together affected communities, institutional stakeholders and social actors to manage water in response to climate variability and agrarian stress, striving to address complex physical and social variables.
This focus area contributes to the following One CGIAR impact areas:
Urban & rural transformation
As agricultural opportunities fluctuate in rural areas, migration, particularly to urban areas, is an adaptation technique to secure incomes and alternative livelihoods. Income generated by migrants is often sent back to family as remittances to support communities at home. At IWMI, we assess linkages between rural and urban areas, as well as the role of agricultural knowledge systems and food and water security. We recognize there are complex push and pull factors such as individual aspirations, economic opportunity, social norms, climate variability and government policies which drive migration and affect rural communities, particularly youth. Our work follows a ‘positive migration’ philosophy, framing migration as an adaptation technique and socio-economic choice (in many cases) rather than a problem to be solved, and focuses on establishing safer, more regular migration by supporting changes to migration governance in sending regions.
This focus area contributes to the following One CGIAR impact areas:
Economics and equity
At IWMI, researching underlying economic and social trends helps us understand why people migrate. They also explain the impact of remittances and loss of agricultural labor, as well as consequences of migration on gender roles and food and water security. For instance, communities with higher levels of income inequality, or relative deprivation, may experience greater levels of out-migration compared to consistently low-income communities. In addition, migration changes intra-household gender-labor composition, which can change the access of smallholders to water resources, affecting the functioning of community-based institutions and consequently household and local food security. IWMI also focuses on circular economy, a strategy to recover and reuse waste, to boost food security and understand how interventions can encourage refugee and host communities to retain scarce resources.
This focus area contributes to the following One CGIAR impact areas:
Human capacity development and knowledge exchange
Scaling farmer-led irrigation requires strengthening human capacity and knowledge exchange among all actors and stakeholders involved. IWMI takes an action research approach, working with national and international research institutions, governments, extension agents and public and private organizations to co-develop the scaling ecosystem and strengthen capacity to drive scaling networks and collective action. We support the development of or reinforce national multi-stakeholder dialogues with the aim of sharing scaling experiences and realizing win-win collaboration, interactive learning and capacity development. Other modalities for capacity development include hackathons, innovation research grants for bachelor’s and master’s students, private sector scaling grants and innovation internships with private companies. These all serve to stimulate local and contextually relevant innovation, close the research-private sector divide and enhance job readiness among young professionals.
This focus area contributes to the following One CGIAR impact areas:
Financing ecosystem
A lack of affordable credit, particularly for women and resource-poor farmers, is one of the main barriers to expanding farmer-led irrigation in low- and middle-income countries. But credit alone is not enough. Financing for irrigation equipment must be embedded in a wider financing ecosystem that bundles credit with inputs and services, market information and access, and technology such as digital payment. In several countries, irrigation equipment suppliers are stepping in to provide financing directly to farmers. In doing so, they increase their own risk. To address this issue, IWMI works with farmers, private companies, finance institutions and development partners such as the World Bank Group to analyze whether credit-scoring tools are inclusive. We also help to identify gaps in the financing ecosystem and de-risk the private sector from testing innovative end-user financing mechanisms that take into account farming system typologies, financial and social capital and crop seasonality.
This focus area contributes to the following One CGIAR impact areas:
Adaptive scaling and partnerships
The ability of farmers to engage in or expand irrigation depends on the prevailing socioeconomic, ecological and political contexts, which are often complex, non-linear and changeable. Overcoming systemic barriers to farmer-led irrigation development while taking advantage of existing opportunities requires scaling processes to be adaptive. This means diverse actors feed off, adapt to, support, cooperate, compete and interact with each other, forming different multi-actor networks and engaging in collective action to undertake various functions in the scaling ecosystem. IWMI works with farmers and public and private sector partners to co-design and pilot contextually relevant innovation bundles and their scaling pathways or strategies, influence policies and accelerate the transition to scale of innovations with demonstrated early impact.
This focus area contributes to the following One CGIAR impact areas:
Environmental sustainability
Population pressure and increasing water competition in a changing climate require us to take stock of the availability and use of water across scales. Water availability not only influences farmers’ commercial prospects but also irrigation-related enterprises and agri-businesses. Greater water scarcity could jeopardize irrigation and agricultural markets while excessive water use can lead to declining ecosystems, water quality and soil health. IWMI advises development partners and the public and private sectors on all aspects of water resource availability and use through a variety of advanced modeling and remote-sensing products and tools, including Water Accounting+, solar irrigation mapping and internet of things. These are complemented by multi-criteria analysis to evaluate the potential of irrigation expansion, taking into consideration environmental flows. With our private sector partners, we are leveraging converging technologies, such as sensors on solar pumps that capture usage data, to encourage better resource management and governance.
This focus area contributes to the following One CGIAR impact areas:
Gender and social inclusion
The barriers facing women and men in accessing irrigation technologies are not the same. Neither are the benefits. Social, cultural and religious norms influence inter- and intra-household power relations. These, in turn, affect access to resources such as land, credit, information and training. IWMI carries out cross-dimensional analysis of gender and social inclusion in policy, financing, livelihood assets and access, institutional approaches and interventions as well as gender-based technology preferences. For example, we work with farmers, financial institutions and the private sector to address gender-based constraints in credit scoring and enhance women’s purchasing power. But benefitting from farmer-led irrigation does not stop at accessing and adopting technologies; enabling women and resource-poor farmers to participate in input and output markets is equally important to ensure that investments in irrigation result in improved nutrition and economic empowerment. Other ways we enhance gender and social inclusion include tackling agency issues around financial management and literacy, livelihood diversity and social capital as well as access to infrastructure, extension services and market linkages.
This focus area contributes to the following One CGIAR impact areas:
Innovation bundles
Farmer-led irrigation development is about much more than installing a pump in a field. It requires access to financing, labor, energy, and input and output markets, so that investments in irrigation translate into sustainable returns. IWMI uses a systemic approach to understand the farming system as well as the factors in the enabling environment that prevent women, men and youth from engaging in and benefitting equitably from farmer-led irrigation. We partner with farmers and the public and private sectors to test contextually relevant innovation bundles that combine irrigation technology such as solar pumps with financing mechanisms like pay-as-you-own or pay-as-you-go, agricultural inputs and agronomic techniques. We also look at ways to improve on-farm water management and nutrient use efficiency and reduce evapotranspiration through digital advances and agricultural extension. We integrate the scaling of innovation bundles into agricultural value chains to enhance the impacts on farmers’ irrigation investments, incomes and livelihoods.
This focus area contributes to the following One CGIAR impact areas:
Enhancing capacity for system transformation
Strengthening and sustaining the enabling environment
Enabling gender and youth inclusion
Brokering knowledge for sustainability
Cultivating scaling preparedness
Fostering scaling partnerships
Co-developing innovation bundles
Scaling farmer-led irrigation requires strengthening human capacity and knowledge exchange among all actors and stakeholders involved. IWMI takes an action research approach, working with national and international research institutions, governments, extension agents and public and private organizations to co-develop the scaling ecosystem and strengthen capacity to drive scaling networks and collective action. We support the 
A lack of affordable credit, particularly for women and resource-poor farmers, is one of the main barriers to expanding farmer-led irrigation in low- and middle-income countries. But 
The ability of farmers to engage in or expand irrigation depends on the prevailing socioeconomic, ecological and political contexts, which are often complex, non-linear and changeable. Overcoming systemic barriers to farmer-led irrigation development while taking advantage of existing opportunities 
Population pressure and increasing water competition in a changing climate require us to take stock of the availability and use of water across scales. Water availability not only influences farmers’ commercial prospects but also irrigation-related enterprises and agri-businesses. Greater water scarcity could jeopardize irrigation and agricultural markets while excessive water use can lead to declining ecosystems, water quality and soil health. IWMI advises development partners and the public and private sectors on all aspects of water resource availability and use through a variety of advanced modeling and remote-sensing products and tools, including 
