IWMI - Malaria Predictions

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Prediction for August and September 2006

Prediction for July and August 2006

Prediction for October and November 2006

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Welcome to the predictions page.

The current prediction was made with data up to February 2007 and inclusive.

Predictions were made using Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) modeling in the R software (function arima) using the parameters AR = 0, I = 1, MA = 1, and with a seasonal component SAR = 1, SI=0, and SMA = 1, and a time series of malaria cases starting January 1972.

Table: Predictions for positive cases by district

DISTRICT	Sep-06	Oct-06	Nov-06	Dec-06	Jan-07	Feb-07	Mar-07	Apr-07
AMPARA+KALMUNE	1	1	2	0	1	NA	0 (0-1)	*0 (0-2)*
ANURADHAPURA	4	6	5	8	5	6	4 (1-9)	*2 (0-7)*
BADULLA	0	0	0	0	0	0	0 (0-1)	*0 (0-1)*
BATTICALOA	0	0	0	0	0	4	3 (1-8)	*3 (0-11)*
COLOMBO	0	0	0	0	0	NA	0 (0-2)	*0 (0-2)*
GALLE	0	0	0	0	0	0	0 (0-3)	*0 (0-3)*
GAMPAHA	0	1	0	0	3	NA	1 (0-9)	*2 (0-13)*
HAMBANTOTA	9	5	0	0	0	0	0 (0-1)	*0 (0-1)*
JAFFNA	0	1	0	0	0	0	0 (0-1)	*0 (0-2)*
KALUTARA	0	0	1	0	0	NA	0 (0-3)	*0 (0-4)*
KANDY	2	1	2	0	0	1	0 (0-2)	*0 (0-2)*
KEGALLA	0	0	0	0	0	0	0 (0-1)	*0 (0-2)*
KILINOCHCHI	0	1	0	0	0	0	0 (0-3)	*0 (0-5)*
KURUNEGALA	16	13	7	2	4	0	0 (0-0)	*0 (0-0)*
MANNAR	0	0	0	0	NA	NA	0 (0-14)	*0 (0-20)*
MATALE	0	0	0	0	0	0	0 (0-1)	*0 (0-0)*
MATARA	0	1	0	0	0	0	0 (0-1)	*0 (0-1)*
MONERAGALA	0	0	0	0	0	0	0 (0-1)	*0 (0-1)*
MULLAITIVU	0	0	0	0	1	NA	1 (0-9)	*0 (0-10)*
NUWARAELIYA	0	0	0	0	0	0	0 (0-2)	*0 (0-2)*
POLONNARUWA	0	0	0	0	0	0	0 (0-1)	*0 (0-1)*
PUTTALAM	0	0	0	1	2	1	1 (0-3)	*0 (0-2)*
RATNAPURA	0	0	0	0	0	0	0 (0-0)	*0 (0-1)*
TRINCOMALEE	3	0	0	2	4	1	1 (0-6)	*1 (0-9)*
VAVUNIYA	24	31	19	2	1	0	0 (0-4)	*0 (0-8)*

Legend: one month ahead prediction in bold; two months ahead prediction in bold italic; figure between (): 95% Confidence Interval, NA: Data not available

Disclaimer: Predictions are based on preliminary work. No rights can be claimed based on information displayed on this page.

This webpage was prepared by Olivier Briët under award NA03OAR4310180 from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce. The statements, findings, conclusions, and recommendations are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration or the Department of Commerce.

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