This prediction was made with data up to June 2006 and inclusive.
Predictions were made using Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) modeling in the R software (function arima) using the parameters AR = 2, I = 1, MA = 0, and with a seasonal component SAR = 1, SI=0, and SMA = 1, and a time series of malaria cases starting January 1972.
Table: Predictions for positive cases by district
|
DISTRICT |
Jan-06 |
Feb-06 |
Mar-06 |
Apr-06 |
May-06 |
Jun-06 |
Jul-06 |
Aug-06 |
Sep-06 |
|
AMPARA+KALMUNE |
2 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 (0-2) |
0 (0-3) |
|
ANURADHAPURA |
25 |
9 |
9 |
6 |
4 |
0 |
0 (0-1) |
0 (0-2) |
|
|
BADULLA |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 (0-2) |
0 (0-3) |
|
|
|
BATTICALOA |
0 |
1 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 (0-1) |
0 (0-1) |
|
COLOMBO |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 (0-2) |
0 (0-2) |
|
|
GALLE |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 (0-3) |
0 (0-4) |
|
|
GAMPAHA |
5 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
0 (0-4) |
0 (0-4) |
|
|
HAMBANTOTA |
1 |
1 |
2 |
0 |
1 |
5 |
5 |
4 (1-9) |
3 (1-11) |
|
JAFFNA |
1 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 (0-3) |
0 (0-4) |
|
|
KALUTARA |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 (0-3) |
0 (0-4) |
|
|
KANDY |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 (0-2) |
0 (0-2) |
|
|
KEGALLA |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 (0-3) |
1 (0-3) |
|
|
KILINOCHCHI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 (0-2) |
0 (0-4) |
|
KURUNEGALA |
45 |
19 |
8 |
11 |
10 |
8 |
25 |
29 (14-59) |
25 (8-73) |
|
MANNAR |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 (0-16) |
0 |
0 (0-4) |
0 (0-8) |
|
MATALE |
0 |
4 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 (0-1) |
0 (0-3) |
|
MATARA |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 (0-3) |
1 (0-3) |
|
|
MONERAGALA |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
NA |
0 |
0 |
0 (0-1) |
0 (0-1) |
|
MULLAITIVU |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
NA |
0 |
0 |
0 (0-3) |
0 (0-4) |
|
NUWARAELIYA |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 (0-3) |
0 (0-4) |
|
|
POLONNARUWA |
0 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 (0-7) |
1 (0-9) |
|
|
PUTTALAM |
3 |
2 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 (0-1) |
0 (0-1) |
|
RATNAPURA |
2 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 (0-4) |
0 |
0 (0-1) |
0 (0-1) |
|
TRINCOMALEE |
8 |
10 |
14 |
20 |
12 |
0 |
2 |
2 (0-8) |
2 (0-16) |
|
VAVUNIYA |
1 |
0 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 (0-4) |
0 (0-13) |
Legend: one month ahead prediction in bold; two months ahead prediction in bold italic; figure between (): 95% Confidence Interval
Disclaimer: Predictions are based on preliminary work. No rights can be claimed based on information displayed on this page.
|
2006 International Water Management Institute. All rights reserved.