Impacts of climate change on the agricultural and aquatic systems and natural resources within the CGIAR’s mandate	Agriculture and Food Production Contribute Up to 29 Percent of Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions According to Comprehensive Research Papers
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New report highlights major challenges for water management posed by climate change.

(Punta del Este, 31 October 2012) A major overhaul of water management strategies in developing countries will be needed to enable the world’s poorest to cope with climate change. That is the conclusion of a new report from the CGIAR research program on Climate Change Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS). Released to coincide with the second Global Conference on Agricultural Research for Development (GCARD), starting today in Uruguay, the report outlines the challenges poor farmers will face as climate change takes hold.

One of the most daunting of these will be managing water in regions where rainfall patterns are likely to become far less predictable. However research by IWMI and its CGIAR partners has demonstrated the great potential to develop resilience strategies for subsistence farmers that could help insulate them against the maelstrom.

Dried up river bed in South Africa - Graeme Williams

“Water scarcity has always challenged food security in the developing world and it will become even more critical with climate change,” says IWMI’s Vladimir Smakhtin, one of the contributors to the report. “For example, 90 percent of all irrigated wheat is grown in less developed countries, while developed countries mostly grow rain-fed wheat. As the planet heats up, crops that rely on water resources will come under increasing pressure. Unless farmers adapt by 2050, climate change could cause wheat yields in irrigated systems in developing countries to fall by around 13 percent. Similarly, climate change could cause irrigated rice yields in these countries to fall by 15 percent.”

A fair share for farmers?
Of all the fresh water used around the world, agriculture accounts for 70 percent. As more water is needed to quench the thirst of the world’s rapidly growing population, competition for this resource will force farmers to grow more with less water. Projected changes in water availability vary greatly by region and are lacking in specificity and certainty. Some regions have addressed rainfall shortages by tapping surface water and groundwater. But these sources are easily depleted if water is takenout faster than it can be naturally replenished.

In the Near East, North Africa, and Central Asia, for instance, irrigation systems use approximately 58 percent of existing water resources. In South Asia, the rate is 52 percent. Doubts persist as to whether or not this level of use outpaces nature’s ability to recharge groundwater and surface water sources. In sub-Saharan Africa, that rate of water usage is less than three percent. More can be used, but how much more?

Crowded out?
Complicating matters further, annual average river runoff and water availability will change with the climate. Already, the amount of water that parts of the world rely on for agricultural production is stretched very thin—a concept known as water crowding (see map).

Map - Water Crowding

“Understanding the impacts of climate change on water resources in different parts of the world and devising viable water management strategies that conserve this resource has become a critical focus of climate change adaptation,” says Smakhtin. “Already, increasing water efficiency—producing “more crop per drop”—is a priority.  Alternative sources of water for agriculture may need to be explored, such as energy efficient systems that remove salt from ocean water.”

Thornton P. 2012. Recalibrating Food Production in the Developing World: Global Warming Will Change More Than Just the Climate. CCAFS Policy Brief no. 6. CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS).